Why Dutch forecourts still price below their fundamentals
Lease indexation, EV-transition optionality, and shrinking new-build supply keep Dutch fuel stations attractively priced versus comparable European markets.
Across the Netherlands, prime forecourt assets continue to trade between 75 and 125 basis points wide of comparable Belgian and German stock. We see three structural reasons for the gap — and three reasons we expect it to close over the next 36 months.
First, lease indexation. The standard Dutch forecourt lease is CPI-linked with no cap, giving the asset class a quiet inflation hedge that institutional underwriting models still tend to discount. Second, EV-transition optionality: the highest-traffic Dutch forecourts already host fast-charging concessions, generating a second income stream the market is slow to price.
Third, supply. The Netherlands has effectively stopped permitting new highway-adjacent forecourt sites since 2019, tightening the replacement-cost floor under existing assets. We expect spreads to compress as international capital recognises the combined effect of these dynamics.